Assess students' ability to apply comparative electoral-system theory and quantitative tools to forecast party-system fragmentation after a country shifts from single-member plurality to proportional representation. Expect use of Duverger’s logic, Laakso–Taagepera effective-number metrics, and evaluation of district magnitude, electoral threshold, ballot/legal rules, social cleavages, incumbency and strategic incentives; students should produce a justified forecast for a specified comparative case or hypothetical dataset.